Saturday, November 8, 2008

Tuesday's Election: Win. Win.

With Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer leading the way with blow-out wins, Democrats running in Montana for statewide offices did very well on Tuesday, capturing statewide office except its Congressional seat. That comes next.

Precisely why Democrats did not fare better in legislative races is a matter of great debate and hand-wringing.

On balance, that was really the only bad news. After all, Obama consistently polled within the statistical margin of error. Disappointing? Sure. But, Sarah is still governor of Alaska. That’s the best news coming out of Tuesday.

Elections elsewhere yielded more, although less visible, victories for Montana, although it will take time to translate into tangible "wins."

With a combination of wins and losses, there will be a dramatic shake-up in the seniority in the United States Senate, a place where seniority means everything. Because both Max and Jon are both D’s, Montana stands to win, a lot.

Under Senate rules, seniority means everything: the more seniority, the more power. But, being a member of the majority party is advantageous. Most significantly, senators are given preferential treatment for committee assignments based on seniority.

As of this writing, Max ranks 10th overall in seniority. Those ahead of our senior senator include Ted Kennedy, Ted Stevens, Joe Biden, and Pete Domenici. You’ve probably noticed: Their names have been in the news lately.

At worst, Max will move up two slots (Biden – elected VP; Domenici – retired). A Stevens loss, Max is 7th. [The Stevens-Begich race has not been called. If Stevens happens to win, depending on how the Senate deals with Ted’s felony conviction, Max could also move up.] Obviously, all Americans will watch Senator Kennedy’s recovery with great concern.

Jon Tester, moves up even more. OK. So, he was 100th after his 2006 win over Conrad and had no where to go but up. Right now, our junior senator ranks 98th.

These more senior senators have retired or have been defeated: John Warner; Larry Craig; Wayne Allard; Gordon Smith; Chuck Hagel; John Sununu; Liddy Dole. The farmer from Big Sandy moves up at least seven spots. #91.

Additionally, Barack Obama won an important election in his own right. Depending on the person appointed to fill this seat, the organic agriculturalist could move up another notch.

Norm Coleman’s race will be recounted. He currently stands at 77th overall. Lose and the former President of the Montana Senate moves up one spot.

It is likely that Saxby Chambliss (#71) will be forced into a run-off election in Georgia in December. Depending on the outcome of that race, Mr. Flat-top could move up one more place.

Best case: 88.

Couple this with names that have been rumored in conjunction with positions in the Obama administration and Jon Tester could rank in the mid-80’s.

Ok. So?

Max’s position as chair of the Senate Finance Committee benefits Montana immensely. In terms of seniority, he's just about maxed out. But, his committee can literally touch any legislation it chooses.

With Robert Byrd’s announced retirement as chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, combined with a larger number of D’s who will serve on the committee because of a larger Senate majority, improves the chances of Tester winning a coveted seat.

Here again, Senators, who serve on the Committee and who leave to assume positions with the incoming administration, create even more opportunities. Members of the Committee who either retired or were defeated on Tuesday (or who may not return for other reasons) include: Stevens; Domenici; Craig; Allard.

During a campaign visit to Montana on Tester's behalf in 2006, Harry Reid sort of "promised" Montana that, if elected, Jon would serve on the Committee.

So far, that hasn't happened.

Be interesting to see how this plays out, after all Tester made campaign appearances on behalf of candidates in many of the states where D's picked up Senate seats.

Regardless, by turning back the McCain bunch and thanks to the electoral misfortunes and ineptitude of R's across the country, Montana won in ways it has not yet begun to appreciate.

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